Probability with Daniel Vacanti

NOVEMBER 01, 2020



When will it start? We put a lot of focus on answering the question “When is it done?”, but arguably more focus should be on the question “When should we start?”


Control Work in Progress – this creates the pull system. Take your current work and cut it in half.


References to Don Reinertsen. Lots of great stuff in his book Principals of Flow.

Proof of Little’s Law and the arbitrary long-term relationship of averages between Cycle Time, WIP, Throughput

  • Avg Arrival Rate and Avg Departure Rate

  • Think about how things are aging

  • All the units need to be consistent

  • WIP not increasing or decreasing

  • Everything that enters your processes needs to exit

Confidence interval. We use the story of wanting to go out for a picnic with the family but checking the weather forecast the night before. What does see a 10% chance of rain do? How about 50%? What about 90%? Seeing these force you to ask your level of risk and the associated action you are going to take.


The future is inherently uncertain.


It’s not deterministic. We don’t know. There is uncertainty inherent in any forecast we make. There is a science of uncertainty and that is called Probability or Statistics.


ActionableAgile metrics for teams.


Stop using story points to predict into the future. Please.


[Kanban has been] Perverted to be a profit machine for an individual rather than a learning tool for a community.


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